Shocks are reverberating through the metaverse
Looking at how new technology takes its place in our lives is rarely a linear success story. Rather, it is a bumpy trail reminiscent of a typical coming-of-age movie. At first things go super and fast, then the obstacles fly around our ears, but eventually we can continue to grow and settle down at a mature pace.
"The young gods of Silicon Valley have seriously gotten on their case. I am very curious to see how they are going to prove themselves again and try to convince us of their added value."
Same goes for technology, and then we call it the hype cycle. Judging by the gigantic rounds of layoffs at Big Tech, we are bang in puberty. The FTX debacle also gave confidence in NFTs and the crypto market a serious blip. But that's how we grow up; with the blip and the bump. All the shifts and necessary reflection in the sector are proof to me that 2023 is going to be wildly interesting. Both for the full potential of the metaverse and AR/VR glasses. The young gods of Silicon Valley have seriously gotten on their case. I am very curious to see how they are going to prove themselves again and try to convince us of their added value. Exciting times ahead!
Night falls over Altspace
Speaking of adolescents, Microsoft seems to be the textbook example, their strategic moves seemingly going in all directions. Whereas just last year they plunked down 69 billion for Activision, "the building blocks of the metaverse," they are now going to cut back on the hololens team and discontinue Altspace. And voila, ten thousand people on the street and full bet on the ChatGPT hype. Calm down, guys!
The attention on ChatGPT is understandable: it is a crazy evolution within AI & language processing. But should it be at the expense of previous investments that have not yet taken root properly and well? In my opinion, no. Besides, the backbone of ChatGPT and the metaverse is the same: AI. So why should Microsoft abandon its efforts to build out the metaverse? I don't think they are.
Some of their acquisitions seemed like mavericks. Altspace is a social VR platform where people from around the world could meet through headsets in virtual space. Textbook metaverse, in other words. Also last year, they acquired Activision for just under 70 billion, making Microsoft the third largest player in the gaming market in one move. But both of those companies are consumer oriented. Microsoft is classically an enterprise pleaser, except with Xbox, but is now targeting that market as well, so what's the plan really?
"One thing is certain: there is a plan. We're talking about Microsoft here."
One thing is certain: there is a plan. We're talking about Microsoft here. When they acquired Skype in 2011, that technology was integrated with Xbox, and since the emergence of both Teams and a certain virus whose name we won't pronounce, Microsoft has captured a huge share of B2B communications. That's no accident.
Anyone who follows Bill Gates and his ilk a bit has already heard talk of Microsoft Mesh, the virtual extension to those B2B communications. Virtual meetings, remote collaboration and immersive meetups are headed your way in 2023. In its development, Altspace's technology will have come in particularly handy. As will that of Skype for Teams. It's calculated experimentation - as long as they keep it to software. Because a curse does seem to hang over their hardware attempts. Remember the Microsoft Lumia smartphone? No. That's what I mean.
From the words of ChatGPT: Yes, Microsoft has launched several mobile and smartphone devices in the past. The most notable of these is the Microsoft Lumia series, which was released from 2011 to 2016. The Lumia devices were powered by the Windows Phone operating system and had features such as a high-resolution camera, a large screen and support for various apps and games. However, Microsoft stopped producing Lumia devices in 2016 and shifted its focus to developing software for other mobile platforms, such as Android and iOS.
The black sheep called Meta
Zuckerberg is well into adolescence, with accompanying identity crisis. And he is the favorite target of doomsayers. His choices are wrong, initiatives are not bearing fruit and TikTok would wipe the floor with Instagram. It is a company in transition, and it takes courage to not just deal with the hype of the day as a tech giant, but also the Day after Tomorrow. Better gambled and lost, they say.
"As Meta's share price skyrocketed by another 100 euros since November, the gods still seem to favor Zuckerberg. Or we just really enjoy watching videos of cats and fails, whether on Insta or on TikTok."
As Meta's share price skyrocketed by another 100 euros since November, the gods still seem to favor Zuckerberg. Or we just really enjoy watching videos of cats and fails, whether on Insta or on TikTok. It has now been ten years since Zuckerberg laid the foundation stone of the metaverse, then with the purchase of Oculus. Perhaps that was also the foundation stone of his greatness. Who's to say? According to Gartner, we are by no means past Peak metaverse yet. Hang in there a little longer Mark!
Apple
Microsoft, Meta and then the third of the holy trinity: Apple. This year, I'm watching extra closely to see what Mr. Cook does and doesn't do. In early January, news sites headlined that Apple is in the final straight line to launch a VR/AR or mixed reality headset. A product launch that could become just as far-reaching as that of the iPhone. And an important step in the maturing of the metaverse.
Those headlines made me frown, because in all honesty, I think the full potential of the metaverse will be years away. So I softly whispered "Told you so" when a few weeks later the same sites reported that Apple was postponing its initiatives to launch AR glasses from 2025 to we-can't-even-say-when-then. Smart, beautiful and ergonomic glasses with all the features of, say, a Playstation 5 are the holy grail. And equally hard to find. Meta also announced that they won't make the 2025 deadline. Told. You. So.
"A smart, beautiful and ergonomic pair of glasses with all the features of, say, a Playstation 5 is the holy grail. And equally hard to find. "
Does that mean the end of AR for the time being? Absolutely not. The first cell phones weren't iPhones either, and yet they were wildly successful and enriched our lives. CES 2023, the high mass for consumer tech in Las Vegas, gave us a whole bunch of launches of AR glasses. However, each one has its limitations, a limited field of view, a cable to your smartphone... I'm not wild about it, and clearly neither is Apple. They only go for perfection and that's why we like them. Better computing power, powerful displays and a decent battery in a nice pair of glasses that you can actually use day to day, that's what we're waiting for. But good things come to those who wait.
Hope springs to life
In January, yondr blew out 8 candles (HASHTAG PROUD). When I think back to the first demos we gave I almost have to blush. Back then we had to get to the prospect half an hour early to set up. The glasses had to be plugged in, the computer had to be high-end, and not infrequently we left people with neck pain. We can speak of significant progress in terms of hardware, and my prediction is that it will continue solidly in 2023. Not perfection, but progress.
The metaverse doesn't stand or fall with hardware, you can just as easily dive into the virtual world with your smartphone or just turn on your Nintendo. And yet the arrival of those famous glasses from Apple is going to give a huge boost to what is now mostly hype. As with all technology, sometimes we are looking too hard for a nail because we have a hammer. It's time for valuable use cases, metaverse applications that enrich people's lives. Something Apple has a nice track record in anyway, especially when it comes to user experience and design.
"It's time for valuable use cases, metaverse applications that enrich people's lives."
Throughout all the hype cycles, it is sometimes good to ask ourselves: if metaverse is the answer, what is the question? Connection? Entertainment? Curiosity? It is the million-dollar question. I already know three gentlemen who have many more millions to spare for the answer. With yondr, we are enthusiastically surfing the tech waves yet to come, and personally, I am very curious about Apple's entrance into the metaverse market. Some declare me crazy, but I continue to stubbornly believe that they will keep their promise of the glasses this year after all. Hope springs eternal and while laughing, the fool speaks the truth.
My five cents on Hardware
Sony is supposed to launch the Playstation VR2 at the end of February.
Apple and their now infamous headset is coming out this spring. Or maybe not.
HTC is dropping a new headset that's already available to pre-order. The Vive XR Elite. Unfortunately, they ran out of budget for one good name.
Meta has to overdo it again and plans to launch four headsets between now and 2024, including a Quest 3
Samsung couldn't be left behind and announced in late January that it was teaming up with Google and Qualcomm to launch a mixed-reality headset.
And five more on software
With Altspace dead and buried, Microsoft's Mesh is probably gaining momentum. Think teams + gaming. What's not to like?
Meta is pumping (according to a good source) about 10% of their 10 billion investments into Horizon Worlds, their virtual world. 30% goes to mixed reality tech and 60% to AR. Horizon Worlds is supposed to be the virtual version of Facebook. And although Meta is currently lagging behind competitor Roblox, they are smoothly jumping up and over it from the fact that only 2% of their users would onboard.
Fortnite, another competitor of Roblox is owned by Epic Games, who own the Unreal engine, the programming language of games but also the film industry. They are planning a second version of Fortine Creative, where, like Roblox, you can build your own games. That opens the door wide open for brands to interact with all the gamers who spend hours in game.
